ELECTION NIGHT 2024 TRACKING GUIDE
This guide highlights important states for Presidential, Senate and a few House races. The times indicated in most cases are 1 hour after the polls close to give time for enough results to come in to establish trends but you can use the guide even if you have real time results coming in.
As of Friday 11/1 the polls for President in all the swing states are all within the margin of error so it is up to the actual vote. For control of the Senate, the Democrats have already lost West Virginia so must hold all other incumbent seats or if they lose one they must flip a Republican seat.
There are 43 House seats that are deemed competitive. For control of the House the Democrats need to flip 4 seats. Currently Dems hold 21 of these seats and Repubs have 22.
Results at 5pm PST/8pm EST
Significant States polls closed GA, FL, VA at 7pm NC, OH 7:30 pm
GA and NC are both swing states. A win by Harris in either state would be significant and a positive indicator for the night. Big wins by Trump would be a very bad indicator. FL has not been a swing state but if Harris does well – a loss of only 1% for example, that would also be a good indicator.
Senate seat in FL – the Republican Scott has been up in all polling. A Democratic upset would be huge.
Senate seat in – OH – Democrat Brown in tight race to hold seat
Key House races – NC 1, OH 9, OH 13, VA 2, VA 7
Results at 6pm PST/9pm EST
Significant States polls closed PA, MI, NJ, TX, ME, MD, CT at 8pm
PA and MI are both swing states. Harris most likely needs to win both of these swing states.
ME is one of two states that divide its electoral college votes – traditionally 2 votes are split between Dems and Repubs
Senate seat in both – PA has incumbent D – MI is open Dem seat, Dems ahead in polls
TX – Senate seat – best opportunity to flip a seat Dem Allred is close or tied with Cruz
Key House races – MI 7, MI 8, MI 10, PA 7, PA 8, PA 10, PA 17, TX 34, NJ 7, ME 2, MD 6, CT 5
Results at 7pm PST/10pm EST
Significant States polls closed WI, AZ, NY, NE, IA, NM at 9pm
WI and AZ are both swing states. Harris most likely needs to win WI unless she wins GA or NC. Harris has been slightly behind in AZ polling.
Nebraska is one of 2 states that divide their electoral votes. Dems have traditionally won 1 electoral vote from Nebraska and this is a key vote.
Senate seat in both – WI has incumbent Dem Baldwin who has small lead. AZ is an open Dem seat the Democrat Gallego has been up in all polls. NE also has Senate race and Independent Osborn is close in polls.
Key House races – AZ 6, NY 4, NY 6, NY 17, NY 18, NY 19, NY 22, WI 3, NE 2, IA1, IA 3, NM 2
Results at 8pm PST/11pm EST
Significant States polls closed NV, MT at 10pm
NV is swing state.
MT has Senate race – Dem incumbent Tester has been trailing in polls
Key House races – MT 1, NV 3
Results at 9pm PST/12am EST
Significant States polls closed CO, OR, CA, WA at 11pm
CA – several key House races CA 13, CA 22, CA 27, CA 41, CA 45, CA 47, CA 49
Also – OR 5, CO 3 CO 8, WA 3
Alaska at large House seat also is a toss up